John Leahy and Casey Mulligan. NBER Research Associates John Leahy and Casey Mulligan have been tapped for new roles in the ...

This project addresses the slowdown in US economic growth since 2000 by focusing on how microeconomic policy changes can spur growth. Recognizing that many growth-related policy levers are ...

We find that on average an announcement of rising unemployment is 'good news' for stocks during economic expansions and 'bad news' during economic contractions. Thus stock prices usually increase on ...

In this paper, we examine Hong Kong's role in intermediating trade between China and the rest of the world. Hong Kong distributes a large fraction of China's exports. Net of customs, insurance, and ...

This paper examines the effects of tariffs along the supply chain using product-level data from a large U.S. wine importer in the context of the 2019-2021 U.S. tariffs on European wines. By combining ...

This paper provides systematic evidence on the macroeconomic consequences of war using a new dataset covering 115 conflicts and 145 countries over the past 75 years. We document three main findings.

From 1900 to 1940, ordinary working- and middle-class families saved for retirement and contingencies via ordinary life insurance policies. These policies combined insurance and savings in a single ...

What is the optimal path of Social Security benefits for an individual who has retired with a stock of wealth, faces stochastic mortality, and has no access to annuities and no preferences for ...

Several competing theories in a number of disciplines point to a possible influence of fertility history on health and mortality. However, the direction of effects is theoretically a-priori unknown ...

We use recent advances in natural language processing and large language models to construct novel measures of technology exposure for workers that span almost two centuries. Combining our measures ...

Cellphone bans in schools have become a popular policy in recent years in the United States, yet very little is known about their effects on student outcomes. In this study, we try to fill this gap by ...

China’s unprecedented expansion of higher education in 1999, increased annual college enrollment from 1 million to 9.6 million by 2020. We trace the global ripple effects of that expansion by ...