New data shows China's manufacturing activity took a sharp dip in April — a sign that the effect of U.S. tariffs is starting to be felt.

The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.

China's factory activity slowed at the start of the second quarter, with a sharp fall in new export orders and the resumption of employment declines, a private-sector survey showed on Wednesday. The survey shows U.